Europe. In or out?

[stainrodisalegend]

You are totally incorrect about Ireland as the treaty we have with them predates our being in the EU (or the common market). There has been freedom of movement between Ireland and the U.K. since their independence. The Irish have been able to work and live in the U.K. They can vote in the upcoming election (unlike other European countries) and the same goes for British who want to live and work in Ireland. This won't change if we leave the EU. This is one of the reasons why when there was the European bank crisis, the only country the U.K. gave aid to was Ireland.

The trade treaty between the U.S. and EU is dead in the water. The United Kingdom was the only country who really wanted it and neither Clinton or Trump want new trade agreements.

Of course we have treaties going back with Ireland for years, it was formerly part of the UK. But that doesn't change the point that Ireland is no longer free to make its own trade agreements with Britain - or anyone else - that is incompatible with its arrangements with the EU. Trade with EU takes precedence, not least because it is more valuable.

But if the hope of the Brexiteers is that we might still be able to cobble together some trade deal with Ireland while we struggle to come to some new arrangement with the rest of the EU, then god help us...

[stainrodisalegend]

I think it is unfortunate that the campaign has become about personalities rather than the issues. It was probably too much to hope that that wouldn't happen. I wish both parties could put their point without getting personal and trying to use the facts. I realize that there are people who want to stay in and others who want to leave, and I respect their opinion. Also I find some of the remarks by young people to be, to say the least, over the top. One young girl who was talking on the news said that the older generation shouldn't be allowed to vote because they won't be around in the future!

Well I wouldn't have put it like that either as it is not respectful, but it is a fact that younger people will have to live with the consequence of the decision for much longer. Some older people I am sure have sound reasons for wanting out, others are perhaps more influenced by old memories, things like fighting Germany in the war. Younger people entirely take it for granted that they can go on holiday in mainland Europe without a visa, or work as easily in one of those countries as they could in Birmingham or Manchester.

[stainrodisalegend]

I think there seems to be a misconception that if we leave the EU they will completely turn their back on us.
That's just not true.
You've rightly said that a lot of immigrants take low paid jobs when they get here. As that's the case, and couple that with the fact that those low paid jobs tend to be in the service/construction industry, both of which involve an awful lot of cash in hand ( black market), I doubt they pay very much tax at all to compensate for the increased drain on the NHS and other services.
Statistics can be misleading but here's one for you. Just under 40% of EU migrants arrived here last year to work without a job offer. You said in a previous post that they work harder for less money. Does that make it acceptable for someone who arrives from a much poorer country than ours to walk into a place of work, whether it's a building site or a restaurant and offer to undercut the people who are already working there, purely because they're used to a much lower standard of living.
The EU themselves impose various tarrifs and restrictions on goods and services to "level the playing field" so where's the logic.
If EU migrants have so much to offer why agree that it would be more ideal if we had more control of our borders.
Interestingly, David Cameron himself, one if the people spearheading the remain campaign, used the word "disappointing" when asked about the record numbers of migrants to the uk in 2015.

I've already said in a previous post I accept it presents challenges for native Brits in lower paid jobs. But ultimately - imho - I think it is up to them with some help from the govt to increase their skills and move into better jobs. Those workers who come here spend money and create wealth themselves which is beneficial to British people. And it is not just low paid foreigners who come over - go to the Ritzier areas of London and you will see loads of highly wealthy people from across Europe. One final point: there are 1.9m Brits living in mainland Europe, not so much lower than the 2.2m continental Europeans living here. The Brits abroad include 600,000 not particularly skilled or wealthy types on the whole in Spain, many of whom the Spanish regard as scrounging off their health system. Swings and round abouts...

[jmelanie]

Well I wouldn't have put it like that either as it is not respectful, but it is a fact that younger people will have to live with the consequence of the decision for much longer. Some older people I am sure have sound reasons for wanting out, others are perhaps more influenced by old memories, things like fighting Germany in the war. Younger people entirely take it for granted that they can go on holiday in mainland Europe without a visa, or work as easily in one of those countries as they could in Birmingham or Manchester.

I went on holiday in France from the age of 11 and I can assure you that we were not in the common market then. I went to work in France when I was 18 (still not in the common market) and stayed there until I met my husband and got married and moved by to the U.K. So I can say with some authority that I had the same opportunities of the kids today even though we were not in the common market.

[stainrodisalegend]

I went on holiday in France from the age of 11 and I can assure you that we were not in the common market then. I went to work in France when I was 18 (still not in the common market) and stayed there until I met my husband and got married and moved by to the U.K. So I can say with some authority that I had the same opportunities of the kids today even though we were not in the common market.

You don't know what the situation will be when you leave because - by their own admittance - the Brexiteers agree that everything is up for grabs (and each one who speaks paints a different scenario). The central point remains: if you want the free movements of goods and services you also have to accept the free movement of labour - and if you accept that, we would have no more control of immigration if we leave or we stay.

[Olly]

The central point remains: if you want the free movements of goods and services you also have to accept the free movement of labour - and if you accept that, we would have no more control of immigration if we leave or we stay.

But if we leave we have an extra option. Carry on trading with the current EU rules AND open new deals with the rest of the world, which we can't do now.

Depending on the success of agreements and trade achieved, we can then decide in Britains best interest, whenever we want, what we want to do about Europe, whether to cut ties, or come to new agreements with it. There is nothing set in stone regarding free movement in the future.

We can have the best of both worlds, so a win win. Leave first, but keep trading with the EU, set up extra trade deals around the world, and have another referendum about trading with Europe if the odds shift in the OUT's favour if we want to.

[jmelanie]

You don't know what the situation will be when you leave because - by their own admittance - the Brexiteers agree that everything is up for grabs (and each one who speaks paints a different scenario). The central point remains: if you want the free movements of goods and services you also have to accept the free movement of labour - and if you accept that, we would have no more control of immigration if we leave or we stay.

I agree it's a gamble, but I think it is one worth taking. None of the EU countries (apart from Ireland which has been already mentioned) imports more from the U.K. than they export. So why would they want to change that? Are they going to find other countries to export their goods to. I don't believe I have heard any of the EU countries (though I may have missed it) have said that they will no longer export their goods to us if we leave.

[Jeems]

There will be a period of pain if we leave and then all will be well and likely much better. But we wont exit. Many parts of the country are enjoying the good life now - why would they want to risk a period of uncertainty for something that wont immediately affect them? When it comes to voting, people generally dont vote for the wellbeing of the rest of the country, they vote depending on their own immediate circumstances.

[Itsonlyagame]

I've already said in a previous post I accept it presents challenges for native Brits in lower paid jobs. But ultimately - imho - I think it is up to them with some help from the govt to increase their skills and move into better jobs. Those workers who come here spend money and create wealth themselves which is beneficial to British people. And it is not just low paid foreigners who come over - go to the Ritzier areas of London and you will see loads of highly wealthy people from across Europe. One final point: there are 1.9m Brits living in mainland Europe, not so much lower than the 2.2m continental Europeans living here. The Brits abroad include 600,000 not particularly skilled or wealthy types on the whole in Spain, many of whom the Spanish regard as scrounging off their health system. Swings and round abouts...

Another poster suggested the very same idea as you, that people in low paid or low skilled jobs should move up the career ladder to free up space for the low skilled people who are migrating here. "Sorry John but we've found someone from a poor ex communist state whose used to such appalling living standards back where he came from that he's willing to do your job for next to nothing. Not only that, he won't grumble about health and safety, working conditions etc so on your way mate. Don't worry though, the government have got a scheme whereby they'll pay you to go to college for three years to study to become an architect. What's that, you have a wife and three children, a huge credit card bill and rent to pay every week. Hmmm, I'm not sure the government will stretch to covering all those costs but I'm sure you'll overcome that problem somehow. What's that, the reason you're in a low skilled, low paid job in the first place is because you've never really been academically minded and didn't do particularly well at school. Don't be so negative mate, you can do anything if you put you're mind to it. Shut the door on your way out"
Assuming your average low skilled worker could overcome those hurdles, does it really make economical sense to pay someone to leave their job just to make way for someone from another country to fill it. I'm not sure how much it would cost the government to train someone to move up the career ladder but it would be thousands, probably tens of thousands.
Wouldn't it be simpler to ensure people who migrate to this country already have the skills required to fill those jobs you're trying to force the low skilled into ?

The point you made about Ireland is a very interesting one. Ireland's economy has been the fastest growing in the eu for the past two years. But the population of Ireland is under 5 million, their is clearly a ceiling to that market. China's economy has also been growing, although the rate of its growth has decreased slightly. That's because the powers that be in China are following a plan to shift their economy from a manufacturing one to a consumer led one, which will require a period of transition, hence the slight drop in the rate of growth. The population of China is 1.3 billion people, a large number of who are now craving well made western goods. And China is just one example of what's up for grabs beyond the eurozone.
You say that people who want out of Europe should stop looking backwards and look to the future like the remain camp. Maybe you've got that the wrong way around ?

[stainrodisalegend]

Another poster suggested the very same idea as you, that people in low paid or low skilled jobs should move up the career ladder to free up space for the low skilled people who are migrating here. "Sorry John but we've found someone from a poor ex communist state whose used to such appalling living standards back where he came from that he's willing to do your job for next to nothing. Not only that, he won't grumble about health and safety, working conditions etc so on your way mate. Don't worry though, the government have got a scheme whereby they'll pay you to go to college for three years to study to become an architect. What's that, you have a wife and three children, a huge credit card bill and rent to pay every week. Hmmm, I'm not sure the government will stretch to covering all those costs but I'm sure you'll overcome that problem somehow. What's that, the reason you're in a low skilled, low paid job in the first place is because you've never really been academically minded and didn't do particularly well at school. Don't be so negative mate, you can do anything if you put you're mind to it. Shut the door on your way out"
Assuming your average low skilled worker could overcome those hurdles, does it really make economical sense to pay someone to leave their job just to make way for someone from another country to fill it. I'm not sure how much it would cost the government to train someone to move up the career ladder but it would be thousands, probably tens of thousands.
Wouldn't it be simpler to ensure people who migrate to this country already have the skills required to fill those jobs you're trying to force the low skilled into ?

The point you made about Ireland is a very interesting one. Ireland's economy has been the fastest growing in the eu for the past two years. But the population of Ireland is under 5 million, their is clearly a ceiling to that market. China's economy has also been growing, although the rate of its growth has decreased slightly. That's because the powers that be in China are following a plan to shift their economy from a manufacturing one to a consumer led one, which will require a period of transition, hence the slight drop in the rate of growth. The population of China is 1.3 billion people, a large number of who are now craving well made western goods. And China is just one example of what's up for grabs beyond the eurozone.
You say that people who want out of Europe should stop looking backwards and look to the future like the remain camp. Maybe you've got that the wrong way around ?

Immigrants driving up the previous wave of immigrants is what created the American dream. A lot of economists say one of the causes of the great depression stopping immigration because it stopped upward mobility.
I have said throughout that it is very difficult for low skilled workers. But whether they like it or not they can't go on expecting to earn high wages for low skills. We live in a globalised world where goods and labour can be had elsewhere. People can rail against it as much as they like but they aren't going to stop it I'm afraid.

[stainrodisalegend]

I agree it's a gamble, but I think it is one worth taking. None of the EU countries (apart from Ireland which has been already mentioned) imports more from the U.K. than they export. So why would they want to change that? Are they going to find other countries to export their goods to. I don't believe I have heard any of the EU countries (though I may have missed it) have said that they will no longer export their goods to us if we leave.

No but they have said they will prob introduce a small tariff (about 4 per cent). Even Lord Lawson one of the leading Brexiteers has admitted this is likely. You forget the key point that collectively Britain only accounts for I think it is 9 per cent of Europe's trade but over 40 per cent of ours. We wd be one against 27. Much weaker position to negotiate from all with a two year bullet to our heads to come to an agreement within that time or go into a disaster land of no trade agreements.

[stainrodisalegend]

But if we leave we have an extra option. Carry on trading with the current EU rules AND open new deals with the rest of the world, which we can't do now.

Depending on the success of agreements and trade achieved, we can then decide in Britains best interest, whenever we want, what we want to do about Europe, whether to cut ties, or come to new agreements with it. There is nothing set in stone regarding free movement in the future.

We can have the best of both worlds, so a win win. Leave first, but keep trading with the EU, set up extra trade deals around the world, and have another referendum about trading with Europe if the odds shift in the OUT's favour if we want to.

Being in the EU doesn't stop us trading with the rest of the world. There is this massive lie peddled by the Brexiteers that the day after we quit Europe somehow China etc will suddenly - for reasons unknown - suddenly decide they are crying out to buy more British goods. The EU is negotiating massive trade deals with the rest of the world, and has more clout because it is the worlds most valuable market.

[Jeems]

Being in the EU doesn't stop us trading with the rest of the world. There is this massive lie peddled by the Brexiteers that the day after we quit Europe somehow China etc will suddenly - for reasons unknown - suddenly decide they are crying out to buy more British goods.

What will happen the day we quit Europe? No one knows and no one can tell us, which is the main reason we will end up staying in. Read a great analogy about this - its the equiv of being in a club and thinking its terrible and telling everyone to leave. Everyone leaves, then realises there is no where else to go and the club wont let us back in.

[Itsonlyagame]

Being in the EU doesn't stop us trading with the rest of the world. There is this massive lie peddled by the Brexiteers that the day after we quit Europe somehow China etc will suddenly - for reasons unknown - suddenly decide they are crying out to buy more British goods. The EU is negotiating massive trade deals with the rest of the world, and has more clout because it is the worlds most valuable market.

You said yourself, Ireland is not free to arrange trade deals with the rest of the world that don't fit in with the eu scheme, that applies to us then doesn't it ?
Low skilled workers don't earn high wages, unless you know something I don't.
As for the American dream, it was a grossly underpopulated emerging nation, there's no comparison. Not only that, the day we start modelling ourselves on America, it's time to leave this island !

[Itsonlyagame]

Immigrants driving up the previous wave of immigrants is what created the American dream. A lot of economists say one of the causes of the great depression stopping immigration because it stopped upward mobility.
I have said throughout that it is very difficult for low skilled workers. But whether they like it or not they can't go on expecting to earn high wages for low skills. We live in a globalised world where goods and labour can be had elsewhere. People can rail against it as much as they like but they aren't going to stop it I'm afraid.

As for the causes of the Great Depression, good luck with that one.
We could all go on and on about what will/might happen if we leave but of course, as we pretty much all agree, nobody really knows. Jmelanie hit the nail on the head by saying it will come down to personalities. Who we believe most. Even then, to a degree, it's a leap into the unknown. But personally I don't believe it's a leap into an abyss.
There will almost certainly be some short term teething issues but plenty of people far more knowledgable on the subject than you or I think it'll be worth it.
What is certainly worth bearing in mind is a vote to stay in the EU isn't necessarily a vote to keep the status quo. That too has its unknowns.It's evolving all the time and there are plenty within it who want it to evolve even more, far more than, as a nation, we want it to. It could quite easily unravel in the coming years. If that happens there will be plenty of other countries from within it scrambling to find trade deals with the other markets around the world. Why wait till then ? Let's take the bull by the horns and act now.