Europe. In or out?

[jmelanie]

Agreed.

Corbyn might win the election to become leader of the labour party, which will probably lead to the party splitting as it did in the 80s, but I see no possibility of labour taking power in the forseeable future. A left wing labour party will never get elected as can be seen from the efforts of Kinnock and Foot. The last left wing prime minister (and he was not terribly left wing) was Harold Wilson.

[FurtiveFox]

Been an interesting week or two.

Did not quite expect the chaos in Europe. Expected some but not quite to the degree we have seen. The economic wobbles in UK predictable enough.

Am beginning to agree with some that either the EU needs to radically change or it will fail altogether. Not necessarily a good thing as we still need to trade with these nations. However now we have started the storm might be just as well to get out sooner rather than later.

May entirely the right person for the job. Never voted Tory in my life so no bias towards them but she is tough and experienced, exactly what we need. Leadsom was a car crash and would likely have been a disaster.

[Johnnykc]

Been an interesting week or two.

Did not quite expect the chaos in Europe. Expected some but not quite to the degree we have seen. The economic wobbles in UK predictable enough.

Am beginning to agree with some that either the EU needs to radically change or it will fail altogether. Not necessarily a good thing as we still need to trade with these nations. However now we have started the storm might be just as well to get out sooner rather than later.

May entirely the right person for the job. Never voted Tory in my life so no bias towards them but she is tough and experienced, exactly what we need. Leadsom was a car crash and would likely have been a disaster.

This is the likely scenario rather than the 'new world order' hysteria being bleated about......

[Hubble]

Corbyn might win the election to become leader of the labour party, which will probably lead to the party splitting as it did in the 80s, but I see no possibility of labour taking power in the forseeable future. A left wing labour party will never get elected as can be seen from the efforts of Kinnock and Foot. The last left wing prime minister (and he was not terribly left wing) was Harold Wilson.

No point extrapolating from the past, the times they are a'changing.

[gaza09]

No point extrapolating from the past, the times they are a'changing.

Corbyn has no chance of wining an election, labour are finished in Scotland, and without the Scots they have no chance of gaining power. And that's without taking into account the threat of UKIP in the north.

The Tories will be in power until at least 2025

[brightonr]

Corbyn has no chance of wining an election, labour are finished in Scotland, and without the Scots they have no chance of gaining power. And that's without taking into account the threat of UKIP in the north.

The Tories will be in power until at least 2025

I see Labour have needed both legal advice and a secret ballot to ascertain what the word "vacancy" means.

[Ćock-a-Hoop]

Excellent post. You're not wrong. I'm surprised the whole sh1t show has lasted this long. And yet still these tragic clowns keep on trying to keep the bubble from busting. This is from today's edition of City AM:

"AS UNCERTAINTY from the UK’s referendum result continues to plague the banking sector, Deutsche Bank’s chief economist is calling for a bailout of Europe’s banks.
In an interview with Welt am Sonntag, David Folkerts-Landau suggested that an injection of fresh capital was needed to help save banks, pegging the amount needed to recapitalise at €150bn (£128bn).
“Europe is seriously ill and needs to address very quickly the existing problems, or face an accident,” Folkerts-Landau told the German newspaper, and highlighted that the Italian banks were particularly problematic.
Speaking with City A.M. Raoul Ruparel, co-director of Open Europe, described the state of Europe’s banks as “a long running problem” which had been “incrementally cleaned up, but there hasn’t been a proper wholesale clean up of the system and particularly countries such as Italy have not undertaken a real clean up of their banks”.

Italy’s banks, which were already struggling with €360bn in non-performing loans between them, were recently dealt a second blow, after the UK’s vote to leave the EU sent bank share prices plummeting worldwide. Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, has previously told City A.M. that failure of the Italian banking sector could topple the banking sector across Europe. “If Italy goes under then it will take the rest of Europe with it,” Hewson said. Ruparel added: “There’s definitely a concern that it could spill over."

Matteo Renzi, the Italian PM, is already holding Merkel to ransom with the threat of 'Italeave'. In Portugal, there are posters everywhere saying 'End this Oppression!" They're talking about EU enforced austerity. The debt crisis has been continually kicked down the road by Germany, the ECB and the IMF, because instead of allowing a sovereign debt write-off - the only sane and indeed humane answer - they're trying to squeeze every last pip out of the EU citizens in the Southern states. It won't work, and as C0ck-a-Hoop rightly points out, the sh1t is about to hit the fan. We probably left the EU just in time to watch the whole thing collapse, and of course, Brexit has been a significant factor in speeding its timely demise.

It is for exactly these kind of reasons that I advocated people take a look at alternative currencies such as bitcoin. When I posted about it at the beginning of the year it was around £300 a btc - it's currently over £500. Crypto-currencies or precious metals are the best hedge, and I prefer the former. Far easier to trade, and almost certainly the future of money.

Thanks Hubble - some excellent material there.

There is much confusion on the subject of trading deals in the post-Brexit haze. I've written this brief essay, which is my own attempt to find some clarity.

ECONOMIC REFLECTIONS

Surpluses & deficits are hotly debated – but what about the currency?

Much has been made of Britain’s current account deficit, which is the amount by which our imports of goods and services exceed our exports. It is a situation that protectionists would love to “do something about”, such as resorting to tariffs in order to redress the gap. But protectionists overlook the fact that one of the main reasons for exporting is to be able to import, and it is clearly mistaken to think of exports as “good” and imports as “ bad”, especially as we cannot control the conduct of our trading partners.

While every trading nation has to honour its debts to those with whom it transacts business, it is obvious that at any single point in time there will be an imbalance between imports and exports. Since it is impossible for every trading nation to have a permanent current account surplus, to wish for it is simply wishing to inflict the demon deficit on someone else, which takes us no further.

A current account deficit is simply a label for accumulated foreign debt, which in time must be repaid. If the deficit country is creditworthy the foreign holders of that debt will not be concerned, particularly when the deficit country is using its borrowings to finance the acquisition of capital assets that will work towards reducing the deficit.

Therefore, despite all the panic stirred up about the deficit, trading with foreigners is in essence no different from trading with locals, and is always just as beneficial from an aggregate economic point of view.

Paying for our imports

When a British importer buys German goods he must pay for them in euros. For that purpose he (or his agent) will acquire euros from a German bank, and after settling the bill the German exporter (or his bank) is now a holder of British pounds. What will he do them? He can use them to buy British goods, or even UK treasury bonds, or he can exchange them for a different currency – but if, instead, he just sits on them indefinitely he will, just like the retailer who never cashes your cheque, be handing the importer a free gift!

The only legitimate concern for those whose trading partners use a different currency relates to the relative strength of the currencies concerned. No exporter will accept payment for his goods in a currency that he does not trust due to its volatility and instability in terms of purchasing power, and consequently will not be trusted by his other trading partners either. At a time when the US dollar was respected for having all the virtues of a “reserve” currency, traders in smaller exporting countries all over the world would insist that payment for their produce, raw materials and manufactures should be denominated in dollars.

Protecting our currencies is therefore the real issue underlying much of the debate about post-Brexit trading relations. The most important favour that trading entities can seek from their governments is to desist from destroying the value of their currency. This is now a universal problem – with central banks hell-bent on destroying the yen, the euro, the dollar and the pound. A veritable race to the bottom!

Having a weak currency may be good for certain exporters at a point in time, but that advantage is counterbalanced by a disadvantage to the non-exporting sector. Furthermore, the deliberate action by a central bank to favour exporters by weakening the currency causes prices to rise over time, which eats into the exporters’ margins – until the next round of currency debasement. And so on. In this foolhardy see-saw there can be no winners.

[James1979]

NissAn sunderland latest from the mail (unfortunately)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...exit-deal.html

[jmelanie]

NissAn sunderland latest from the mail (unfortunately)
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...exit-deal.html

I think this is all talk. However if they do decide to leave, I hope they will repay all of the money the government gave them to set up in Sunderland. This will come to far more than any tariffs imposed.

[Shania]

Since the Brexit debate the mood on this board has not been what it (never) used to be.

[jmelanie]

Since the Brexit debate the mood on this Board has not been what it (never) used to be.

The majority wanted Brexit, so not sure why the mood on the Board is so bad. Everything seems to be the fault of Brexit.

[Shania]

The majority wanted Brexit, so not sure why the mood on the Board is so bad. Everything seems to be the fault of Brexit.

Neither am I..

[Gtleighsr3]

we be happier if the jocks bugger off

[wortonranger]

The majority wanted Brexit, so not sure why the mood on the Board is so bad. Everything seems to be the fault of Brexit.

If the majority on here wanted Brexit it shows they were generally of a negative disposition in the first place. Now they are getting what they wanted I suppose. All very sad and divisive.

[Olly]

If the majority on here wanted Brexit it shows they were generally of a negative disposition in the first place. Now they are getting what they wanted I suppose. All very sad and divisive.

How is wanting to better yourself as a country negative? Some would say the 'Remainers' were negative, 'we'll put up with the cr.ap because that's all we know', and are still throwing their toys out. The two biggest doom merchants ever in recent memory must be Cameron and Osborne, they would go down well on here as posters.