How realistic are our chances of staying up?

[Felt]

If you know anything about probability analysis then you will know that the probabilities of relegation for all teams in the PREM need to add up to 3 (for 3 relegated teams). If we are 50/50 (or 0.5 in probabilistic terms) then it seems to me you would need to give somebody else an unrealistically high probability of relegation to balance our unrealistically low 0.5.

Rather amusing that you dismiss others' arm waving and replace it with some arm waving of your own!

Look that 50/50 was an off-the-cuff representation of how I feel in my gut about our prospects. As for the site you linked in the other thread, the methodology is hideously flawed, which makes me think it's you that doesn't know anything about probability analysis. The weighted model goes purely off form without taking into account a myriad of other factors such as transfers, injuries, managerial changes... with 21 games to go it is completely and utterly useless.

[zeberdee]

I looked it up - worst placed surviving team EPL last 7 seasons with number of wins and points

Year----Team-----W----Pts
2012----QPR-----10----37
2011----Wolves--11----40
2010----WHU-----8-----35
2009----Hull----8-----35
2008----Fulham--8-----36
2007----Wigan---10----38
2006----Pompey--10----38

So real world numbers say on average you need 9 wins and 37 points just to be in a position to bite your fingernails during the final game of the season.
Which means QPR need to win about half their remaining games to survive.

[acricketer]

West Ham and Hull survived with 8. Could be we only need another 7 wins out of 21, 33%......or even set a new record of surviving with 7 wins- only 6 more needed!

[zeberdee]

Saw this as well - it was 44 points one season:

[QPRDave]

How realistic are our chances of staying up?

As good as last year imo, maybe better with 'Arry in

[acricketer]

We are only 2 points worse off this time last season after the same number of games.

[LoftusRoadLad]

Have faith....we will stay up !!

[kron-1664]

If we can get some sort of result at Newcastle , things will really be motoring on then , come on the Arry factor keep it going. !!

[Del]

Saw this as well - it was 44 points one season:

This is misleading. It says the points needed to survive, but it's not, it;s the points tally the 17th place side ended up with, which is totally different. Eg in 2009/10 season West Ham were 17th with 35 (as per the chart), but Burnley just below them only had 30 points, so in fact you only needed 31 to survive.

[acricketer]

This is misleading. It says the points needed to survive, but it's not, it;s the points tally the 17th place side ended up with, which is totally different. Eg in 2009/10 season West Ham were 17th with 35 (as per the chart), but Burnley just below them only had 30 points, so in fact you only needed 31 to survive.

And that was with 8 wins all season. WHU only needed 7 wins to still finish ahead of Burnley. That said we need 2 other teams to go on shocking runs.

[dsqpr]

This is misleading. It says the points needed to survive, but it's not, it;s the points tally the 17th place side ended up with, which is totally different. Eg in 2009/10 season West Ham were 17th with 35 (as per the chart), but Burnley just below them only had 30 points, so in fact you only needed 31 to survive.

This is an interesting point. If Burnley had 31 points, would they have survived? NO! So, it is hard to say exactly how many points were needed to survive because it depends on who you are! Burnley and the teams below them needed 36. Everybody else needed 31. Since we are currently in the same situation as Burnley and the teams below them (i.e. we are one of the teams in the relegation zone), I think the original analysis was the right one for us.

[zeberdee]

There is always hope as well. Harry said he hoped it would be 14 points required to stay up. Only 4 points to go then !