Top 6 after 11 games..... What usually happens?

[Abseits]

I've looked at past three seasons to see where the clubs that were in top 6 after 11 games ended the season.

I was mildly surprised to see that 61% of them are still in top 6 at end of the season. In fact, if you ignore Bristol City inexplicably tumbling down the table TWICE, virtually every team in top 6 after 11 games is still there (or very nearly there) at end of the season.

Below are the top 6 tables after ELEVEN games for past 3 seasons followed by their FINAL league position:

2020/21
Reading 22pts 7th
Watford 21pts 2nd
Norwich 21pts 1st
Bournemouth 20pts 6th
Bristol C 20pts 19th!!!!!!
Swansea 19pts 4th

2019/20
West Brom 22pts 2nd
Forest 22pts 7th
Preston 21pts 9th
Swansea 21pts 6th
Leeds 20pts 1st
Bristol C 20pts 12th

2018/19
Leeds 22pts 3rd
Middlesbro 22pts 7th
Sheff Utd 22pts 2nd
West Brom 21pts 4th
Norwich 18pts 1st
Brentford 17pts 11th

It kinda looks like it's the "surprise packages" you'd possibly not expect to get promoted that are the clubs that fall away, but simple fact is most of sides in top 6 after 11 games finish in the top 6 too. I think the heartening thing is even those who don't make it are still in contention and sniffing about.

[Darkranger]

Yep agreed. I read a number of years ago that if you take a snapshot of the Championship after 10 games it can give you a good indication of the final positions come the end of the season.
I have monitored this over the years and it is surprising accurate. Though it does have anomalies, with odd teams going on a run (as Barnsley did last year) and teams falling away pretty badly.
I would predict that at least 4 of the current top 6 Will be there at the end of the season, whether we will be there is uncertain of course.

[shanns]

I’d say 3 places are all but taken WBA, Foolham and Bournemouth, so it’ll be a group of about 10 teams fighting for the other 3 spots.

[Abseits]

Unfortunately, you have to follow the money I reckon... the clubs with parachute money have to be favourites for the top spots.

The relegated teams: Fulham, WBA and Sheff Utd plus Bournemouth and I believe still Huddersfield maybe? These teams just have a massive advantage, there's no getting away from it.

[QPROslo]

Good post, Abseits!

[davieqpr]

Yet only twice in the last ten years have two relegated clubs been promoted the following season.

[bhujio]

My Concern is, of the 3 seasons mentioned in 2 seasons the team in sixth position has fallen away and only Swansea bettered their position

[Abseits]

Yet only twice in the last ten years have two relegated clubs been promoted the following season.

Yeah but this is about Top 6 AND the relegated teams mostly get parachute money for more than just the following season. The main thing I'd agree with is finishing 3rd-6th obviously doesn't equate to promotion though.... Swansea in top 6 in past two seasons but not promoted (and now their parachute money has run out).