potential sales of players.

[Ginger Ninja]

Its mad that people want to shift a youngster like McCarthy out the door and are still willing to give fat boy Adel ANOTHER chance.

That is mental.

[Burnside]

Flog Fernandes to West Ham for 200m

[klonk]

If the best offer for Austin is £15m we should keep him. It works like this (a statistical concept called "expected gain"):

Promotion to the Premier League is reportedly worth £120m but that will go up next year with the new TV deal, so let's say £140m.
If keeping Charlie increases our chances of promotion by 15% (say, from 10% to 25%; aka 1-in-10 to 1-in-4), then keeping him is worth 15% of £140m = £21m.

The whole calculation obviously hinges on how much you think our chances of going up improve with Charlie in the team but surely they increase significantly, and that in turn is worth a significant amount of money.

true... but because of the parachute payments, promotion to the premier league is only worth about £90m to us (as opposed to say leeds or rotherham or brentford who would get the full £140m benefit), therefore 15% is £13.5m, which is marginally less than the profit we would recognise in the accounts by selling him (£14m). in addition, you'd need to take into account contract amortisation (£1m) and wages (approx £1.5m?) as costs of not selling him, so the end position would be sell (gain of £16.5m) vs keep (gain of £13.5m).

[bakes8]

Crikey........ Far too early for Mathematics.

[geejaybee]

http://www.givemesport.com/582542-qp...ee?autoplay=on

[Bluehoop]

true... but because of the parachute payments, promotion to the premier league is only worth about £90m to us (as opposed to say leeds or rotherham or brentford who would get the full £140m benefit), therefore 15% is £13.5m, which is marginally less than the profit we would recognise in the accounts by selling him (£14m). in addition, you'd need to take into account contract amortisation (£1m) and wages (approx £1.5m?) as costs of not selling him, so the end position would be sell (gain of £16.5m) vs keep (gain of £13.5m).

What a great response to a sound point. Message Board equivalent of Vordeman versus Riley - I have klonk as Riley as she wins in my book all day long

[Ginger Ninja]

true... but because of the parachute payments, promotion to the premier league is only worth about £90m to us (as opposed to say leeds or rotherham or brentford who would get the full £140m benefit), therefore 15% is £13.5m, which is marginally less than the profit we would recognise in the accounts by selling him (£14m). in addition, you'd need to take into account contract amortisation (£1m) and wages (approx £1.5m?) as costs of not selling him, so the end position would be sell (gain of £16.5m) vs keep (gain of £13.5m).

And in English please? Lol

[dogsrrs]

Greene is the one that needs no development from all reports McCarthy needs a hell of a lot more development , no good burying your head in the sand because he's young and ignore people that have seen him and rate him as crap

[dogsrrs]

Its mad that people want to shift a youngster like McCarthy out the door and are still willing to give fat boy Adel ANOTHER chance.

Come on Westy you will always have people that live in the past and say yeah back in the day Adel was a great player , but two wrongs don't make a right

[West Acton]

Greene is the one that needs no development

Green can’t kick, catch or command his box he might be mid-thirties but there are still areas that need improvement but at his age if he has not learnt them yet he never will

[Shepherds Mush]

Appears that Palace are sniffing around McCarthy

[dogsrrs]

Green can’t kick, catch or command his box he might be mid-thirties but there are still areas that need improvement but at his age if he has not learnt them yet he never will

Agreed Greene will get no better . What was it about 4 games back at home McCarthy came on for Greene when he kicked the ball out the Fella sitting next to me laughed and said f//k me another Greene
but yes he has time on his side to improve but a goalie that needs time to improve is not what we need as !st choice

[West London is Rss]

Green can’t kick, catch or command his box he might be mid-thirties but there are still areas that need improvement but at his age if he has not learnt them yet he never will

This is very true.

[Hove Ranger]

If the best offer for Austin is £15m we should keep him. It works like this (a statistical concept called "expected gain"):

Promotion to the Premier League is reportedly worth £120m but that will go up next year with the new TV deal, so let's say £140m.
If keeping Charlie increases our chances of promotion by 15% (say, from 10% to 25%; aka 1-in-10 to 1-in-4), then keeping him is worth 15% of £140m = £21m.

The whole calculation obviously hinges on how much you think our chances of going up improve with Charlie in the team but surely they increase significantly, and that in turn is worth a significant amount of money.

The calculation doesnt take into consideration Austin's possible lack of form, injury, happiness (at having to stay in the championship) etc. which makes this whole point somewhat futile. The 15% you have suggested is based on Austin playing every game and scoring 30+ goals but that isnt guaranteed. With that in mind there is no way in this calculation that any player could increase a team's chances of promotion by more than 100% of its previously expected chances because of the amount of variable scenarios that each player entails. Lastly this whole calculation seems to hinge on subjectivity (opinion) which makes it less credible and somewhat ambiguous

[theblackmafia.]

Confucius says: The superior man is satisfied and composed; the mean man is always full of distress.