But where will the goals come from ...

[Pal]

I see it this way and 40 goals should give some points,

Last year Fulham were relegated with 40 goals.
Palace were mid table with only 33

If the defence is meagre then it takes pressure off the strikeforce.

I'd be a lot happier with 50 goals this season, I just can't see where there are all going to come from.

[Ronnie Rangers]

So is it moaning to quote statistics?

No it's pin point black and white, now back to my dream of a grey day lol

[Del]

OK, here are the goal scoring stats of Vargas. For Chile, scores for fun. Domestically, nine goals in the previous three seasons...

Years Team Apps† (Gls)†
2006–2009 Cobreloa 49 (10)
2010–2012 Universidad de Chile 54 (19)
2012– Napoli 19 (0)
2013 → Grêmio (loan) 17 (6)
2014 → Valencia (loan) 17 (3)
2014– → Queens Park Rangers (loan) 0 (0)
National team‡
2009 Chile U20 6 (4)
2010– Chile 34 (15)

As for Vargas, we need to look at his international rate, which is exceptional, because he plays full matches and where he wants to be playing. Striker goals / game stats are the worst in football because they can come on for 30 seconds in injury time and that counts as a game....it as a joke. I read previously that apparently for Napoli, every one of his 19 games was from the bench, so if true, for example if on average 10 mins each game that would total little over 2 matches in game time. Also for other teams he's been played wide.

The Forlan reference someone made sums this up to with striker stats. Got ridiculed because he didn't score in about 30 appearances or something for Utd, but most were as sub... went to Spain, played regularly and got the Golden boot.

Now days with squad rotation you see more use of minutes / goal, which is perfect. Michael Owen was deemed by some to have failed at Madrid, but his goals / minutes ratio was the best in Europe..... Is that a failure?

[hh9]

Last year Fulham were relegated with 40 goals.
Palace were mid table with only 33

If the defence is meagre then it takes pressure off the strikeforce.

I'd be a lot happier with 50 goals this season, I just can't see where there are all going to come from.

8 teams scored 40 or less goals last season and 5 of those stayed up.
8 teams scored 50 or more and if you score more than 60 you are in Europe

[Del]

8 teams scored 40 or less goals last season and 5 of those stayed up.
8 teams scored 50 or more and if you score more than 60 you are in Europe

Yeah that works.... Lets not worry about goals against and actual points.

[Kevin Mcleod]

Seven from chaz and four from vargas and four from the rest of the team by jan, plus the one already, thats nearly half the forty. The defoe will get ten plus. Consider it done.

[Del]

Seven from chaz and four from vargas and four from the rest of the team by jan, plus the one already, thats nearly half the forty. The defoe will get ten plus. Consider it done.

40 goals is an irrelevant number without being put into context with results. You could score 40+ goals and get 0 points. Equally, you could score 20 goals and get 60 points. It's a stupid argument.

[Kevin Mcleod]

Its not my argument, im just playing along. BUT.......Has a team ever gone down scoring forty goals? Thats how you can tell a bit better.

[Del]

Its not my argument, im just playing along. BUT.......Has a team ever gone down scoring forty goals? Thats how you can tell a bit better.

Fair play mate.

As for the question it doesn't matter if they have. Most teams who go down aren't good enough to score a lot of goals in general, so quite likely no. But what matters is you don't need to score a lot of goals to amass points, certainly not 40 goals to get 36 - 40 for survival.

[nasser95]

As for Vargas, we need to look at his international rate, which is exceptional, because he plays full matches and where he wants to be playing. Striker goals / game stats are the worst in football because they can come on for 30 seconds in injury time and that counts as a game....it as a joke. I read previously that apparently for Napoli, every one of his 19 games was from the bench, so if true, for example if on average 10 mins each game that would total little over 2 matches in game time. Also for other teams he's been played wide.

The Forlan reference someone made sums this up to with striker stats. Got ridiculed because he didn't score in about 30 appearances or something for Utd, but most were as sub... went to Spain, played regularly and got the Golden boot.

Now days with squad rotation you see more use of minutes / goal, which is perfect. Michael Owen was deemed by some to have failed at Madrid, but his goals / minutes ratio was the best in Europe..... Is that a failure?

For Vargas, to settle the discussion: Since moving to Europe, I have calculated the minutes to goal contribution (goals or assists) of all the matches where he has started playing in the middle (either as striker or just off of the striker) and has played 60+ minutes. he has contributed to 27 goals in 3506 minutes, which is a ratio of 129 minutes per goal contribution. This means more than a goal he contributes every other match. I have chosen not to include his time with Club Universidad de Chile because it is difficult to compare the league to the European standards. This is an incredible contribution for someone who was deemed a 'failure' in Italy.

[stationcafe]

Football isn't maths though, you can't just look at the stats. So much depends on the manager's system and the position a player is used in.

Look at Welbeck - stats don't look good but he was stuck on the wing, dropped for Rooney/RVP even when he performed well, had to play in Moyes' rigid 442. Now he's at Arsenal he will bang them in. Reckon he could outscore Falcao, looks a good bet at 4/1.

Napoli also had Higuain & Callejon, and I don't watch them much but it seems probable he didn't get much time up front.

End of the day it's Arry's job to get the team playing, if he can the team playing then the goals should be shared around.

[stainrodisalegend]

Some great posts from dale, nasser and several others. Very encouraging what nasser has found out about vargas. For the record i was not writing vargas off at all, i simply had no idea whether he wd be an effective goal scorer. Obviously nothing is certain in football but hopefully we have got more of a player than we - certainly me - realised. If so v well done the scout who has been monitoring him. Odd that if he is this deadly these italian clubs havent made more of him. Be interesting to get an italian perspective as everything nasser says fills me with optimism.

[Hoop-du-Jour]

Some great posts from dale, nasser and several others. Very encouraging what nasser has found out about vargas. For the record i was not writing vargas off at all, i simply had no idea whether he wd be an effective goal scorer. Obviously nothing is certain in football but hopefully we have got more of a player than we - certainly me - realised. If so v well done the scout who has been monitoring him. Odd that if he is this deadly these italian clubs havent made more of him. Be interesting to get an italian perspective as everything nasser says fills me with optimism.

I'm beginning to wonder if we have signed one of those one season wonder teams... Nah, not us.

[hh9]

Football isn't maths though, you can't just look at the stats. So much depends on the manager's system and the position a player is used in.

Look at Welbeck - stats don't look good but he was stuck on the wing, dropped for Rooney/RVP even when he performed well, had to play in Moyes' rigid 442. Now he's at Arsenal he will bang them in. Reckon he could outscore Falcao, looks a good bet at 4/1.

Napoli also had Higuain & Callejon, and I don't watch them much but it seems probable he didn't get much time up front.

End of the day it's Arry's job to get the team playing, if he can the team playing then the goals should be shared around.

I am surprised when people say that maths and statistic is not used in football.
It is used a lot and I will give you an example.
Teams try to get corner kicks against QPR because the stat says we have already conceded 3 from corners.
I am also sure that QPR coaching team is telling the players not to give away cheap corners while they are trying set up a better system.
There is stat for passing accuracy and believe me best passers are put in certain areas.

[Pal]

.Has a team ever gone down scoring forty goals? Thats how you can tell a bit better.

Fulham last season went down with 40 goals