Perspective

[1973 ranger]

Stan I based my opinion on his post match press conference where he was less than pleased. Agreed Hall should play in his own position which is centre back.

[hal9thou]

I'm just saying I'm not bothered in the slightest by us losing a game where we didn't play a full strength side.

All those people like the OP who claim it doesn't matter are deluding themselves. It obviously needs stating again, because some people still don't get it: stats wise there is no correlation between a 3rd round exit and improved form - if anything, the opposite is true. Our own experience of R3 exits in recent times bear this out.

We need to get confidence and that comes from winning games, irrespective of the competition.

[TBLOCKRANGER]

What worries me is the lack of individual responsibility throughout the team at any strength. No one wants the ball and as soon as anyone gets it the first thought is to off load it asap rather than do anything useful.

[nasser95]

All those people like the OP who claim it doesn't matter are deluding themselves. It obviously needs stating again, because some people still don't get it: stats wise there is no correlation between a 3rd round exit and improved form - if anything, the opposite is true. Our own experience of R3 exits in recent times bear this out.

We need to get confidence and that comes from winning games, irrespective of the competition.

So I just fact checked this.

Teams that stayed in the cup last season overall showed a small drop in form from the point of staying in, until the end of the season, gaining fewer points than they had done prior to the cup. Those that were eliminated showed a slight improvement in form in general from being eliminated to the end of the season.

In reality, you have to question the validity of this metric as teams that stay in that you have some teams that seem to have unimaginable upturns in fortune (Burnley springs to mind, they got 0.75 more points per game after staying in the cup and are really the only reason the change is slight. Take Burnley out of the equation and teams that stay in the cup have a much greater loss of points per game).

Additionally, backroom drama may have an effect on teams like Middlesbrough who really slowed down after January.

As for QPR, we actually showed improved form on being eliminated, going from 1.2 points per game to 1.43 points per game after elimination from the cup.

Oh and this is also proven to be true based on the prior year. Teams that stayed in gained fewer points per game post 3rd round than they did prior to the cup and teams that were eliminated overall gained more points than they did prior.

In fact, that season, staying in the cup was actually shown to cost Derby their play off spot, while earning Norwich theirs (alongside the introduction of a new manager if I recall correctly). Derby showed a phenomenal loss of form post cup, gaining 0.42 fewer points per game than they were before the cup; while Norwich gained 0.69 more points per game by getting eliminated.

[WeAreQPR12]

All those people like the OP who claim it doesn't matter are deluding themselves. It obviously needs stating again, because some people still don't get it: stats wise there is no correlation between a 3rd round exit and improved form - if anything, the opposite is true. Our own experience of R3 exits in recent times bear this out.

We need to get confidence and that comes from winning games, irrespective of the competition.

And you've been nassered lol

[kenthoop]

So I just fact checked this.

Teams that stayed in the cup last season overall showed a small drop in form from the point of staying in, until the end of the season, gaining fewer points than they had done prior to the cup. Those that were eliminated showed a slight improvement in form in general from being eliminated to the end of the season.

In reality, you have to question the validity of this metric as teams that stay in that you have some teams that seem to have unimaginable upturns in fortune (Burnley springs to mind, they got 0.75 more points per game after staying in the cup and are really the only reason the change is slight. Take Burnley out of the equation and teams that stay in the cup have a much greater loss of points per game).

Additionally, backroom drama may have an effect on teams like Middlesbrough who really slowed down after January.

As for QPR, we actually showed improved form on being eliminated, going from 1.2 points per game to 1.43 points per game after elimination from the cup.

Oh and this is also proven to be true based on the prior year. Teams that stayed in gained fewer points per game post 3rd round than they did prior to the cup and teams that were eliminated overall gained more points than they did prior.

In fact, that season, staying in the cup was actually shown to cost Derby their play off spot, while earning Norwich theirs (alongside the introduction of a new manager if I recall correctly). Derby showed a phenomenal loss of form post cup, gaining 0.42 fewer points per game than they were before the cup; while Norwich gained 0.69 more points per game by getting eliminated.

Sorry Nas, have fallen asleep reading one of your novels...again!

[hal9thou]

So I just fact checked this.

Naz sorry to be a pain but what were the parameters? Was it based on championship level stats? Over what period? Because there does seem to be a difference between Prem and Championship re 3rd round exit, and equally there does seem to be some evidence that the neg impact on league form only kicks in after R4.... Re QPR, is the 1.43 points over two seasons only?

It's amazing how little research there seems to be on this, given the current controversy re the status of the competition. I've seen data relating to league form of finalists, but since we are now the record holders for R3 elimination we could be an interesting source of baseline data ourselves for anyone looking to establish correlation.

[Shepherds Mush]

Massive worry and statement of intent,

Statement of intent? What, we intend to go out and lose?

[CroydonCaptainJack]

Sorry Nas, have fallen asleep reading one of your novels...again!

But awake enough to respond eh!

[Kevin Mcleod]

Statement of intent? What, we intend to go out and lose?

Exactly. We are so easily beatable by all the clubs below us.

[1QPRDK]

Naz sorry to be a pain but what were the parameters? Was it based on championship level stats? Over what period? Because there does seem to be a difference between Prem and Championship re 3rd round exit, and equally there does seem to be some evidence that the neg impact on league form only kicks in after R4.... Re QPR, is the 1.43 points over two seasons only?

It's amazing how little research there seems to be on this, given the current controversy re the status of the competition. I've seen data relating to league form of finalists, but since we are now the record holders for R3 elimination we could be an interesting source of baseline data ourselves for anyone looking to establish correlation.

He needs to cut it off somewhere mate. Post is far too long for most on here as it is already. Try putting the details in as well. Fark me. Well done Nasser. Keep up the good work, but please donīt hold back on the details.

[nasser95]

Naz sorry to be a pain but what were the parameters? Was it based on championship level stats? Over what period? Because there does seem to be a difference between Prem and Championship re 3rd round exit, and equally there does seem to be some evidence that the neg impact on league form only kicks in after R4.... Re QPR, is the 1.43 points over two seasons only?

It's amazing how little research there seems to be on this, given the current controversy re the status of the competition. I've seen data relating to league form of finalists, but since we are now the record holders for R3 elimination we could be an interesting source of baseline data ourselves for anyone looking to establish correlation.

It's for all championship teams only. I've only wanted to see champ performance because that's what's relevant.

I basically just made a quick excel on it and had two sheets, one for last season, one for the season before. I then set the league table to show me the points of all teams prior to their third round fixture. I put that data in and then looked at their points total after the third round fixture. I highlighted all teams that were knocked out in the third round and calculated the ppg before and after the fixtures in the league. I then looked at the ppg difference of after compared to before.

At this point, I split into three sets of parameters. 1) What was the overall points change for teams that remained in compared to teams that were knocked out; 2) Of the teams that were knocked out, how did those that ended up with worse form after getting knocked out see their points per game change in comparison with those that had improved ppg after getting knocked out; 3) Of the teams that remained in, how did those that ended up with worse form after staying in the cup see their points per game change in comparison with those that had improved ppg after staying in.

Here's an image of the sheet from last year:



Hope that helps.

Also regarding qpr, the 1.43 is only for last season as that was our only season in the last two in the champ. This is a championship only statistic since that's the league we're in now and seems most relevant.

[nasser95]

Sorry Nas, have fallen asleep reading one of your novels...again!

I assume the little caterpillar would put you to sleep too then

[1973 ranger]

#### me Nas I had to get the glasses on for that last post!!!!

[Rich]

I knew I was right. Good stats Nasser!

It's always nice to win but I'm happier we have back to back league wins and can get back to full strength and hopefully pick up another win in the next 2 games!