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  • #61
    Originally posted by brightonr View Post

    What differing standards are you referring to? They are currently the same, are they not?

    As for the motor trade or Airbus, we’re hardly going to be independently changing the spec of BMW components. Nothing actually needs to change unless the EU decide to put up barriers. In my opinion, the reality of that and the consequences for their member states will become clearer as the weeks pass. Not sure if the EU are stupid enough to create havoc among the economies of the “net contributors”, but if they are, it can only hasten it’s demise. Can’t see Germany and France being too keen on keeping the rest afloat even more than they are doing already.

    I guess time will tell.

    They won't be the same once we leave.

    Once we leave the customs union and single market, we won't be bound the same EU law which gives effect to the same common rules, regulations and enforcement that apply to all the members. What matters isn't only what standards the goods adhere to but also what laws are present that give effect to the production of these goods and adherence to these standards. The effect that the law has is that it provides a means for these goods to travel without checks or hindrance (non tariff barriers). Having this law in place provides assurance to the trading partner as when there is a dispute they can invoke these laws and take the matter to adjudication. It's a means of trusting one another.

    Once we come out of the EU jurisdiction they won't be able to do that and our goods automatically will not comply. In the case of no deal this will happen overnight without any time to put any infrastructure in place to comply with the new WTO requirements. The WTO itself will require us to check stuff as it will require the EU to check stuff, otherwise we'll be braking WTO rules.

    What I meant by a free trade agreement not being a solution for Airbus and BMW was that it doesn't provide them with friction free movement of goods. They need their goods to move freely so that they can have just in time manufacturing so that their factories do not lose efficiency. If they do lose efficiency they will start doing some sums and if it's cheaper for them to move the factories than to keep them here, they won't care, they'll just move them somewhere else, whether that's Slovenia, Mexico or anywhere in the world really.

    If we leave with no deal the EU will put up barriers (time will tell how far they'll go. Don't think flights wills stop although disruption is guaranteed.) Why would they put up barriers? Because that's the best thing for them to do, in a simple selfish I'll do whatever I have to do to protect myself kind of way. The same reason why so far they haven't budged much, they're not as worried about it as our government.

    France and Germany won't be fed up of being net contributors (or the others). That's because they've done alright out of the single market. Think of the Greek debt scandal for example. They kept borrowing money cheaply and living beyond their means. They kept borrowing and buying all this stuff. A lot of it was German goods that they bought. Now they got all this debt and have to pay the Germans back. The Germans have done alright out of it. As have we.

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    • #62
      The less money people have got, the less they will be concerned about buying high end German goods and will settle for cheaper, slightly more inferior products, which has always been the Chinese plan to take over the world economy.

      Comment


      • #63
        Originally posted by fisnik View Post


        They won't be the same once we leave.

        Once we leave the customs union and single market, we won't be bound the same EU law which gives effect to the same common rules, regulations and enforcement that apply to all the members. What matters isn't only what standards the goods adhere to but also what laws are present that give effect to the production of these goods and adherence to these standards. The effect that the law has is that it provides a means for these goods to travel without checks or hindrance (non tariff barriers). Having this law in place provides assurance to the trading partner as when there is a dispute they can invoke these laws and take the matter to adjudication. It's a means of trusting one another.

        Once we come out of the EU jurisdiction they won't be able to do that and our goods automatically will not comply. In the case of no deal this will happen overnight without any time to put any infrastructure in place to comply with the new WTO requirements. The WTO itself will require us to check stuff as it will require the EU to check stuff, otherwise we'll be braking WTO rules.

        What I meant by a free trade agreement not being a solution for Airbus and BMW was that it doesn't provide them with friction free movement of goods. They need their goods to move freely so that they can have just in time manufacturing so that their factories do not lose efficiency. If they do lose efficiency they will start doing some sums and if it's cheaper for them to move the factories than to keep them here, they won't care, they'll just move them somewhere else, whether that's Slovenia, Mexico or anywhere in the world really.

        If we leave with no deal the EU will put up barriers (time will tell how far they'll go. Don't think flights wills stop although disruption is guaranteed.) Why would they put up barriers? Because that's the best thing for them to do, in a simple selfish I'll do whatever I have to do to protect myself kind of way. The same reason why so far they haven't budged much, they're not as worried about it as our government.

        France and Germany won't be fed up of being net contributors (or the others). That's because they've done alright out of the single market. Think of the Greek debt scandal for example. They kept borrowing money cheaply and living beyond their means. They kept borrowing and buying all this stuff. A lot of it was German goods that they bought. Now they got all this debt and have to pay the Germans back. The Germans have done alright out of it. As have we.
        Nice to read a concise and reasoned view on possible brexit effects rather than the usual 'man in the pub' dross that is spouted on here.

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        • #64
          Power struggles within the bloc continue unabated.Macron fancies himself head honcho,Italy defaults on its budget...the cracks are there for all to see.UK may be the only ones banging on the door of a collapsed castle.Then there's the financial crash coming......

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          • #65
            “Once someone is committed to a belief, contrary arguments may only serve to increase its strength: when people’s beliefs are challenged, they may become even more convinced that they are right, a phenomenon known as the ‘boomerang effect’.”

            Prof Stuart Sutherland
            Irrationality
            Rutgers Univ. Press
            1994

            What Prof. Sutherland was saying is that research shows that when presented with EVIDENCE which contradicts their beliefs, people dig their heels deeper rather than considering the option of changing their mind. The opposite of the scientific method basically.

            So it can be more comfortable to stay in your ideological foxhole firing at the enemy than to step out and try to engage. So much for the age of reason. We are awash with statistics but only quote the ones that validate our arguments. A nuanced view is frowned upon in these highly tribalistic times. For example I support brexit but also fear it. I agree with a lot of remainer arguments but still believe on balance that it's right to leave.

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            • #66
              Originally posted by Rael View Post
              “Once someone is committed to a belief, contrary arguments may only serve to increase its strength: when people’s beliefs are challenged, they may become even more convinced that they are right, a phenomenon known as the ‘boomerang effect’.”

              Prof Stuart Sutherland
              Irrationality
              Rutgers Univ. Press
              1994

              What Prof. Sutherland was saying is that research shows that when presented with EVIDENCE which contradicts their beliefs, people dig their heels deeper rather than considering the option of changing their mind. The opposite of the scientific method basically.

              So it can be more comfortable to stay in your ideological foxhole firing at the enemy than to step out and try to engage. So much for the age of reason. We are awash with statistics but only quote the ones that validate our arguments. A nuanced view is frowned upon in these highly tribalistic times. For example I support brexit but also fear it. I agree with a lot of remainer arguments but still believe on balance that it's right to leave.

              Since when did freedom become no more than "tribalism"?And quite frankly I see no evidence to sway my initial beliefs.In the final analysis winners don't have to justify themselves.

              Comment


              • #67
                Originally posted by Johnnykc View Post

                Nice to read a concise and reasoned view on possible brexit effects rather than the usual 'man in the pub' dross that is spouted on here.
                Fair play Johnny, it must be hard having to dumb yourself down enough to be able to come on here with us ‘men in the pub’

                He'll regret it till his dying day, if ever he lives that long

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                • #68
                  Originally posted by Itsonlyagame View Post

                  Fair play Johnny, it must be hard having to dumb yourself down enough to be able to come on here with us ‘men in the pub’

                  Amazes me how eloquently some people argue, but just can’t see the obvious.

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Originally posted by Blobbers View Post


                    Since when did freedom become no more than "tribalism"?And quite frankly I see no evidence to sway my initial beliefs.In the final analysis winners don't have to justify themselves.

                    Why can't freedom be tribalism? We're all free to be tribal. Freedom can be anything, I suppose. If you don't see any evidence, that's absolutely fine, that's the whole point of democracy and believing in what you think is right.
                    I don't get your last point about winners but I guess you mean that leave won the referendum. I would say winners need to justify themselves, losers need to justify themselves and everyone does. No one or nothing is beyond questioning. We wouldn't progress as a society otherwise.

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Originally posted by Itsonlyagame View Post

                      Fair play Johnny, it must be hard having to dumb yourself down enough to be able to come on here with us ‘men in the pub’
                      It's not for me to comment on what Johnny might have intended but If I could say what I've noticed about this whole thing. One of the most common themes you notice is that a lot of people say: "Just get on with it.", "Let's just leave already", "Why ain't we left yet" etc. It's just that it gives off the vibe that a lot of people think it's really simple and easy.

                      Forget agreeing on anything else but if we had to agree on just one thing, I think it would have to be that Brexit is not simple, it's not easy and it's really complex. If it was easy we would have been out by now. Hopefully we can agree on that.

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Originally posted by fisnik View Post

                        It's not for me to comment on what Johnny might have intended but If I could say what I've noticed about this whole thing. One of the most common themes you notice is that a lot of people say: "Just get on with it.", "Let's just leave already", "Why ain't we left yet" etc. It's just that it gives off the vibe that a lot of people think it's really simple and easy.

                        Forget agreeing on anything else but if we had to agree on just one thing, I think it would have to be that Brexit is not simple, it's not easy and it's really complex. If it was easy we would have been out by now. Hopefully we can agree on that.
                        I see this a lot too. People who want to leave regardless of how terrible a deal it might turn out to be. Surely that has to come into play?
                        "When you look annoyed all the time, people think you're busy"

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                        • #72
                          If Germany weren't so dominant in the EU they would have fcked off out of it years ago.

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                          • #73
                            Originally posted by fisnik View Post

                            It's not for me to comment on what Johnny might have intended but If I could say what I've noticed about this whole thing. One of the most common themes you notice is that a lot of people say: "Just get on with it.", "Let's just leave already", "Why ain't we left yet" etc. It's just that it gives off the vibe that a lot of people think it's really simple and easy.

                            Forget agreeing on anything else but if we had to agree on just one thing, I think it would have to be that Brexit is not simple, it's not easy and it's really complex. If it was easy we would have been out by now. Hopefully we can agree on that.
                            Apologies for not making it clearer, but that was my point exactly.....whereas your post highlights the obvious intricacies and real life difficulties of extricating ourselves from the EU.

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                            • #74
                              Haven't posted in here so will leave it to just this one.
                              I want a govt that is answerable to me the UK voter. At the moment they take orders.
                              Appledore Shipyard has just announced it will close. The main reason is because
                              the UK have to put out to tender all contracts across the eu, and UK yards can't compete with foreign
                              govt subsidised yards. That is what the eu brings to Britain.
                              I want UK fishing boats catching our fish in our waters, and fishing ports and towns will be regenerated.
                              I want a sensible immigration policy, only skilled workers that we need to come in.
                              And finally I don't want to under the power of the ECJ that has given more rights to wrong doers than the wronged.
                              Apparently I'm a stupid, ignorant biggoted nazi and countless other things on twitter.....Oh well

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Originally posted by QPRDave View Post
                                Haven't posted in here so will leave it to just this one.
                                I want a govt that is answerable to me the UK voter. At the moment they take orders.
                                Appledore Shipyard has just announced it will close. The main reason is because
                                the UK have to put out to tender all contracts across the eu, and UK yards can't compete with foreign
                                govt subsidised yards. That is what the eu brings to Britain.
                                I want UK fishing boats catching our fish in our waters, and fishing ports and towns will be regenerated.
                                I want a sensible immigration policy, only skilled workers that we need to come in.
                                And finally I don't want to under the power of the ECJ that has given more rights to wrong doers than the wronged.
                                Apparently I'm a stupid, ignorant biggoted nazi and countless other things on twitter.....Oh well
                                U can't be a Nazi,they were european
                                Chelmsford City the home of Radio

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