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If you hadn’t guessed by now I’m quite in to my stats and as Saturday was Warnock’s 28th League game in charge of the mighty R’s I thought I’d look into how his 28 matches versus the 28 previous matches compare. Also I’ll look into how the 14 this season compared with the 14 last season and the 14 (or half) of the previous 28 matches compare. Why 28 matches and not wait till 30? As he only took charge of 14 matches last season to wait until 16 of this season would have made the comparison (IMO) less interesting.
The 14 games prior to Warnock taking over started with our 5-1 home loss to Middlesbrough and ended with our 2-0 away loss to Middlesbrough
QPR 1-5 Middlesbrough to Middlesbrough 2-0 QPR (Matches 15-28):
Played: 14
Won: 2
Drew: 3
Lost: 9
Goals For: 12
Goals Against: 30
Points: 9
Points Per Game: 0.64
Form: 24th
Sometimes stats need a comment to either put them into context or to explain what they mean but I think 2 wins out of 14, 9 losses, only 12 goals scored and bottom of the form table does all the speaking for itself. 14 games isn’t a season and what both above and below show that a season can change in a second. Arguably that changed in the moments after the 2-2 against West Brom because prior to these 14 matches our form is very different indeed. What followed was relegation form but what came before was promotion form. As I say 14 games isn’t a season and a lot can and does change but how did we do in the 14 games before the Hart and Harford debacle, which starts with our first win of last season at Scunny and finishes with our disappointing 2-2 home draw against Coventry.
S****horpe 0-1 QPR to QPR 2-2 Coventry (Matches 1-14):
Played: 14
Won: 7
Drew: 4
Lost: 3
Goals For: 28
Goals Against: 17
Points: 25
Points Per Game: 1.79
Form: 4th
1.79 points per game is the equivalent of 82 points over the course of a season which last year would have put us comfortably in the top 6 at the expense of Blackpool. 3 years ago 82 points would have secured automatic promotion. However 0.64 points per game is the equivalent of less than 30 points over the course of a season enough to be relegated every season since time began. Like many, last season is one I’d like to forget. Too often were we the butt of the joke (see what I did there) and too often we were left disappointed. If you think a few recent draws is tough to swallow then cast your mind back just a few months ago. So if they are the 28 games prior to Warnock how did Warnock finish the season and start this season?
QPR 3-1 WBA to QPR 0-1 Newcastle (Matches 1-14):
Played: 14
Won: 5
Drew: 5
Lost: 4
Goals For: 15
Goals Against: 14
Points: 20
Points Per Game: 1.43
Form: 9th
Having had to follow the top set of performances 4 losses in 14 matches and conceding just a goal a game was a remarkable achievement. Especially considering we had won just once in the previous 9 matches losing to Peterborough and S****horpe in the process. We all know what follows but for comparison here are this season’s performances:
QPR 4-0 Barnsley to QPR 1-1 Burnley (Matches 15-28):
Played: 14
Won: 8
Drew: 6
Lost: 0
Goals For: 26
Goals Against: 5
Points: 30
Points Per Game: 2.14
Form: 2nd
Meaning that if you combine the two sets of 14 matches you should see a stark contrast of results:
Pre Warnock:
Played: 28
Won: 9
Drew: 7
Lost: 12
Goals For: 40
Goals Against: 47
Points: 34
Points Per Game: 1.21
Warnock in Charge:
Played: 28
Won: 13
Drew: 11
Lost: 4
Goals For: 41
Goals Against: 19
Points: 50
Points Per Game: 1.79
Once again we see 1.79 points as points per game average but this time it’s after 28 matches (but split between two seasons). If Warnock keeps up his QPR average we will make the play offs – Blackpool finished 6th with 70 points whereas a 1.79 PPG is the equivalent to 82 points. The 10 year average for the team finishing in 6th place is 73.3 points with the highest required to finish in that position was 75 points. Meaning that even if we do suffer from a dip in form (currently averaging 2.14 PPG) then we only need to accumulate a further 45 points from the remaining 34 matches, which is 1.32 points per game, which is fewer than points per game than Warnock accumulated during his first 14 matches in charge just to make the top 6. The 10 year average for the team finishing in 2nd place is 87.4 points (on 4 occasions this wouldn’t have been enough) but to achieve this 10 year average we would require 1.79 points per game from the remaining 34 matches. As I’ve already pointed out 1.79 points per game is exactly what Warnock has achieved to date during his 28 matches in charge and is what Magilton achieved in the first set of 14 matches that I looked into.
Maybe I’m a geek but rather interesting don’t you think?
The 14 games prior to Warnock taking over started with our 5-1 home loss to Middlesbrough and ended with our 2-0 away loss to Middlesbrough
QPR 1-5 Middlesbrough to Middlesbrough 2-0 QPR (Matches 15-28):
Played: 14
Won: 2
Drew: 3
Lost: 9
Goals For: 12
Goals Against: 30
Points: 9
Points Per Game: 0.64
Form: 24th
Sometimes stats need a comment to either put them into context or to explain what they mean but I think 2 wins out of 14, 9 losses, only 12 goals scored and bottom of the form table does all the speaking for itself. 14 games isn’t a season and what both above and below show that a season can change in a second. Arguably that changed in the moments after the 2-2 against West Brom because prior to these 14 matches our form is very different indeed. What followed was relegation form but what came before was promotion form. As I say 14 games isn’t a season and a lot can and does change but how did we do in the 14 games before the Hart and Harford debacle, which starts with our first win of last season at Scunny and finishes with our disappointing 2-2 home draw against Coventry.
S****horpe 0-1 QPR to QPR 2-2 Coventry (Matches 1-14):
Played: 14
Won: 7
Drew: 4
Lost: 3
Goals For: 28
Goals Against: 17
Points: 25
Points Per Game: 1.79
Form: 4th
1.79 points per game is the equivalent of 82 points over the course of a season which last year would have put us comfortably in the top 6 at the expense of Blackpool. 3 years ago 82 points would have secured automatic promotion. However 0.64 points per game is the equivalent of less than 30 points over the course of a season enough to be relegated every season since time began. Like many, last season is one I’d like to forget. Too often were we the butt of the joke (see what I did there) and too often we were left disappointed. If you think a few recent draws is tough to swallow then cast your mind back just a few months ago. So if they are the 28 games prior to Warnock how did Warnock finish the season and start this season?
QPR 3-1 WBA to QPR 0-1 Newcastle (Matches 1-14):
Played: 14
Won: 5
Drew: 5
Lost: 4
Goals For: 15
Goals Against: 14
Points: 20
Points Per Game: 1.43
Form: 9th
Having had to follow the top set of performances 4 losses in 14 matches and conceding just a goal a game was a remarkable achievement. Especially considering we had won just once in the previous 9 matches losing to Peterborough and S****horpe in the process. We all know what follows but for comparison here are this season’s performances:
QPR 4-0 Barnsley to QPR 1-1 Burnley (Matches 15-28):
Played: 14
Won: 8
Drew: 6
Lost: 0
Goals For: 26
Goals Against: 5
Points: 30
Points Per Game: 2.14
Form: 2nd
Meaning that if you combine the two sets of 14 matches you should see a stark contrast of results:
Pre Warnock:
Played: 28
Won: 9
Drew: 7
Lost: 12
Goals For: 40
Goals Against: 47
Points: 34
Points Per Game: 1.21
Warnock in Charge:
Played: 28
Won: 13
Drew: 11
Lost: 4
Goals For: 41
Goals Against: 19
Points: 50
Points Per Game: 1.79
Once again we see 1.79 points as points per game average but this time it’s after 28 matches (but split between two seasons). If Warnock keeps up his QPR average we will make the play offs – Blackpool finished 6th with 70 points whereas a 1.79 PPG is the equivalent to 82 points. The 10 year average for the team finishing in 6th place is 73.3 points with the highest required to finish in that position was 75 points. Meaning that even if we do suffer from a dip in form (currently averaging 2.14 PPG) then we only need to accumulate a further 45 points from the remaining 34 matches, which is 1.32 points per game, which is fewer than points per game than Warnock accumulated during his first 14 matches in charge just to make the top 6. The 10 year average for the team finishing in 2nd place is 87.4 points (on 4 occasions this wouldn’t have been enough) but to achieve this 10 year average we would require 1.79 points per game from the remaining 34 matches. As I’ve already pointed out 1.79 points per game is exactly what Warnock has achieved to date during his 28 matches in charge and is what Magilton achieved in the first set of 14 matches that I looked into.
Maybe I’m a geek but rather interesting don’t you think?
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