It doesn't take a genius to work out that sirpiechucker likes his stats, so back in October I went throught the last 10 seasons to find out the average points total needed to make the play offs and then wrote my findings on the old board:
I must say I'm pretty happy with how accurate that prediction was. Preston who took the last play off place finished with 74 points and throughout the season I predicted they needed to be on particular points total at certain stages of the season so were they?
After 10 matches – 16/17 points - Preston - 14 points - down 2/3
After 11 matches – 17/18 points - Preston - 17 points - on target
After 12 matches – 19/20 points - Preston - 17 points - down 2/3
After 13 matches – 21/22 points - Preston - 17 points - down 4/5
After 14 matches – 23/24 points - Preston - 20 points - down 2/3
After 15 matches – 24/25 points - Preston - 20 points - down 4/5
After 20 matches – 32/33 points - Preston - 31 points - down 1/2
After 25 matches – 40/41 points - Preston - 40 points - on target
After 30 matches – 48/49 points - Preston - 48 points - on target
After 35 matches – 56/57 points - Preston - 56 points - on target
After 40 matches – 64/65 points - Preston - 61 points - down 3/4
After 46 matches – 74/75 points - Preston - 74 points - on target
I also predicted that to gain automatic promotion a club needed 88 points, which was right but a little too high at Birmingham did it in 83. Wolves did it in 90 points so the average of the two points totals is 86½ so only 1½ points out. The stats also showed that the team finishing 2nd need to accumulate 36 points or more away from home. We finished with 18 but how many did Birmingham finish with... 36 points.
Also on this thread I asked the question: If we sacked Dowie could we get Coppell? Would he leave Reading? Well we've sacked another manager and back in October I was hoping we would get Coppell and now he is available again so hopefully I got this right as well.
It's only half past eight so I'll stop blowing my own trumpet and quit while I'm ahead.
I must say I'm pretty happy with how accurate that prediction was. Preston who took the last play off place finished with 74 points and throughout the season I predicted they needed to be on particular points total at certain stages of the season so were they?
After 10 matches – 16/17 points - Preston - 14 points - down 2/3
After 11 matches – 17/18 points - Preston - 17 points - on target
After 12 matches – 19/20 points - Preston - 17 points - down 2/3
After 13 matches – 21/22 points - Preston - 17 points - down 4/5
After 14 matches – 23/24 points - Preston - 20 points - down 2/3
After 15 matches – 24/25 points - Preston - 20 points - down 4/5
After 20 matches – 32/33 points - Preston - 31 points - down 1/2
After 25 matches – 40/41 points - Preston - 40 points - on target
After 30 matches – 48/49 points - Preston - 48 points - on target
After 35 matches – 56/57 points - Preston - 56 points - on target
After 40 matches – 64/65 points - Preston - 61 points - down 3/4
After 46 matches – 74/75 points - Preston - 74 points - on target
I also predicted that to gain automatic promotion a club needed 88 points, which was right but a little too high at Birmingham did it in 83. Wolves did it in 90 points so the average of the two points totals is 86½ so only 1½ points out. The stats also showed that the team finishing 2nd need to accumulate 36 points or more away from home. We finished with 18 but how many did Birmingham finish with... 36 points.
Also on this thread I asked the question: If we sacked Dowie could we get Coppell? Would he leave Reading? Well we've sacked another manager and back in October I was hoping we would get Coppell and now he is available again so hopefully I got this right as well.
It's only half past eight so I'll stop blowing my own trumpet and quit while I'm ahead.
Comment