What Team Could GA Put Out Next Year?

[Isleworth116]

Assuming all loans go back.

Assuming Willock goes.

Assuming we have to take Richards.

Then assume we we do not have any money to spend at all. Willock money straight in the pit.

Don't pick loans or free transfers, just who we have on the books now.

How bad is it.

Interesting question.

Probably close to relegation, roughly where we are now.

Dieng, Kakay, Dunne, Dickie, Paul reasonable defence.

Field, Stef, Dozzell, workmanlike midfield.

Dykes, Chair, Armstrong

Grind out few results, we'd be ok. Injuries would hit us hard. Not much creavity, few goals scored.

[Springboks2002]

we should be aiming at comfortable mid table for next season

not fighting relegation

got a horrible feeling the players GA will bring in will be hoof ball experts

[QPROslo]

One thing for sure after reading this thread is that nobody has a bloody clue.

A few things are facts and a few things are assumptions, qualified or not:

Fact 1: The FFP rules - max allowed loss over a 3 seasons rolling period of £39m based on FFP calculations, which are not exactly equal to normal P&L.
Fact 2: We seem to have been close to that FFP border this season (hence lack of funds in January). You can extrapolate a lot from that, if knowing 20/21 and 21/22 results
Fact 3: We know the loss in the P&L accounts of 21/22. But we do not know exact loss from a FFP standpoint, but can make reasonable assumptions based on costs that are exempt from these calculations. It looks like a £19-20m loss to me.

Based on these facts and estimates, we can anticipate the max budget for the 23/24 season:

20/21: FFP loss of appr zero
21/22 FFP loss of appr £19-20m
22/23: FFP loss of upwards to £19-20m, but probably a little less, like £15-18m
23/24: We have hardly room for a loss, but might have room for a few million, provided loss 22/23 isn't too bad, like £15m. The better the figures for 22/23, the more we can accept of a loss in 23/24

Whatever way you look upon it, we will have to cut the loss drastically from this season to next. That can happen by selling players and by cutting salaries - both salaries of players and staff.

I think we will sell Field, Dieng, Willock, Chair and Dykes, or at least four out of the mentioned five. The transfer fees will be less than we expect. However, if we get half decent fees we might have some money to reinvest. If we cannot offload the majority of the mentioned players for decent fees, we have absolutely nothing to spend and might not avoid breaking the rules, as we cannot get out of all the commitments we have that easily. My fear is that offers come in so late in the transfer window that we simply have to take what we can get, even though it is #### (like Manning that was sold on deadline day for peanuts), and end up without any budget for proper reinforcements.

I keep fingers crossed that the lack of spending in January this year was with an eye on 23/24, and not because we were close to breaking FFP limits this season. If we managed to cut the loss drastically between 21/22 and 22/23, we might be in a better place than I estimate. But while we let players such as Austin, Gray, Hendricks, Wallace, Barbet, Moses and a few others go last summer, we signed 7 new players (including loans). So I cannot see that we managed to cut the costs dramatically. Player amortisations were already low in 21/22 so I cannot think that one has dropped a lot in 22/23.

My hope is that we can do some shrewd signings on a shoestring budget, and create a team with plenty of fight and passion, that can make up for lack of talent. For a low budget version of QPR, Ainsworth might not be such a bad choice. My other hope is that we are not the only club in trouble, without a proper budget. Hopefully there are three other clubs in more financial mess than us. There might also be clubs suffering from points deductions.

I cannot see anything less than a relegation dog fight. I like to add that normally I am optimistic and a glass half full guy.