Some stats and conclusions relating to relegation spots of last 10 years

[Abseits]

Ave pts of 17th placed team: 37
Ave pts of 18th placed team: 35

"Luckiest" survivors @ 17th: WBA (2005) 34 pts, Hull (2009) 35 pts and W.Ham (2010) 35 pts
"Unluckiest" relegated @ 18th: B'ham (2011) 39 pts and Sheff U (2007) 38 pts

Relegated by Goal Difference: Sheff U (2007) 38 pts, -23 goals and Reading (2008) 36 pts, -25 goals

Obviously it can't be scientific to Nth degree and anything less than 40 pts could result in relegation but averages suggest that 36+ pts should suffice and a goal difference bigger than -22ish could be a problem too.

We should be aiming for another 18 pts from remaining 16 games.

2011/12 we got 17 pts from last 16 games (and goal difference deteriorated by -3).
2012/13 we got 11 pts from last 16 games (and goal difference deteriorated by -11).

[nasser95]

Ave pts of 17th placed team: 37
Ave pts of 18th placed team: 35

"Luckiest" survivors @ 17th: WBA (2005) 34 pts, Hull (2009) 35 pts and W.Ham (2010) 35 pts
"Unluckiest" relegated @ 18th: B'ham (2011) 39 pts and Sheff U (2007) 38 pts

Relegated by Goal Difference: Sheff U (2007) 38 pts, -23 goals and Reading (2008) 36 pts, -25 goals

Obviously it can't be scientific to Nth degree and anything less than 40 pts could result in relegation but averages suggest that 36+ pts should suffice and a goal difference bigger than -22ish could be a problem too.

We should be aiming for another 18 pts from remaining 16 games.

2011/12 we got 17 pts from last 16 games (and goal difference deteriorated by -3).
2012/13 we got 11 pts from last 16 games (and goal difference deteriorated by -11).

Careful mate, some people here will attack you for using stats

[12321]

Good thread, what jumps out at me immediately is the difference between my perception of 2011/2012 season and the facts as you have outlined them. I thought we stormed our way through the last part of that season and got more than 17 points in those games. It does put in stark relief how well we are going to have to perform in our remaining games to better that tally which is what we're going to have to do to survive.
At this juncture it is hard to see how we can do that but who knows?

"Cometh the hour cometh the men"

[West London is Rss]

Ave pts of 17th placed team: 37
Ave pts of 18th placed team: 35

"Luckiest" survivors @ 17th: WBA (2005) 34 pts, Hull (2009) 35 pts and W.Ham (2010) 35 pts
"Unluckiest" relegated @ 18th: B'ham (2011) 39 pts and Sheff U (2007) 38 pts

Relegated by Goal Difference: Sheff U (2007) 38 pts, -23 goals and Reading (2008) 36 pts, -25 goals

Obviously it can't be scientific to Nth degree and anything less than 40 pts could result in relegation but averages suggest that 36+ pts should suffice and a goal difference bigger than -22ish could be a problem too.

We should be aiming for another 18 pts from remaining 16 games.2

011/12 we got 17 pts from last 16 games (and goal difference deteriorated by -3).
2012/13 we got 11 pts from last 16 games (and goal difference deteriorated by -11).

With HR staying for the full season now and having seen most games this season home and away.. With no away points on the board and all the top teams to come at home, SURELY even the most optimistic of fan can see that this (in bold) isn't going to happen.

[nasser95]

With HR staying for the full season now and having seen most games this season home and away.. With no away points on the board and all the top teams to come at home, SURELY even the most optimistic of fan can see that this (in bold) isn't going to happen.

I can see it...

[QPR1234]

didnt west ham once go down with 40pts? or somebody did.

GOOGLE IS MY FRIEND:

1997 - Sunderland 40
1998 - Bolton 40
2003 - West Ham 42

[West London is Rss]

I can see it...

that doesn't surprise me... Nasser mate your so tunnel vision its un-real!

You'd still back HR and this group of players even if we didn't win another match.

[nasser95]

that doesn't surprise me... Nasser mate your so tunnel vision its un-real!

You'd still back HR and this group of players even if we didn't win another match.

Of course I would, because they are part of this club and they represent this club m8. Go support another team if you aren't gonna support the foundations of this club at all times.

[Jogo]

Of course I would, because they are part of this club and they represent this club m8. Go support another team if you aren't gonna support the foundations of this club at all times.

Supporting the club doesn't mean you have to be blinkered and be overtly optimistic all the time.

[nasser95]

Supporting the club doesn't mean you have to be blinkered and be overtly optimistic all the time.

True, but being totally the opposite doesn't make you a good fan either, that is my point. I'm not blinkered btw, I can see plenty of issues at the club. My point is that we should be behind the team regardless of what happens. I don't think people who only enjoy complaining about literally everything should be at this club, that isn't the point of it. If you are never happy about the club, there is a deep seeded issue that should be changed by leaving to another club.

[MYU]

With nasser on this one, we're still in January and points to play for. Until it's not over we need to fight to stay up.

If you accept defeat already, then I'm affired you're already 99.9% lost it by giving up!

Just my opinion.

[Ginger Ninja]

With nasser on this one, we're still in January and points to play for. Until it's not over we need to fight to stay up.

If you accept defeat already, then I'm affired you're already 99.9% lost it by giving up!

Just my opinion.

Think its sad that so many are accepting relegation as a certainty already. Wouldnt want to be stuck in the trenches with them. White flags at the ready chaps!

[Jogo]

Think its sad that so many are accepting relegation as a certainty already. Wouldnt want to be stuck in the trenches with them. White flags at the ready chaps!

Never say never but it's hard to see where the points are going to come from, especially away from home.

[nasser95]

Think its sad that so many are accepting relegation as a certainty already. Wouldnt want to be stuck in the trenches with them. White flags at the ready chaps!

[West London is Rss]

Of course I would, because they are part of this club and they represent this club m8. Go support another team if you aren't gonna support the foundations of this club at all times.

Your one of a kind Nasser.. I cannot still back Harry Redknapp or this team he put together if we go down with a whimper which is where we are heading.