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What will the squad look like next season?

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  • What will the squad look like next season?

    It seems to me many posters think our financial situation is so dire we will end up with a depleted squad next season. Many seem to believe we will have to sell Freeman and cannot resign any of the loan players and cannot make any new signings. I donít think it is as bad as many fans fear.

    To comply with FFP rules we must improve ca £7.5m compared to this season. This can come through sale of players, reduction of salaries or reduction of other costs. Jonny, a regular poster here, has also analyzed the accounts and conclude we need to cut even less to comply, so my estimate might be worst case.

    The first good piece of news is that we will benefit from a nice reduction of amortization costs next season. Amortization is the word used for write-off of player contracts or other intangible assets. What does this mean? If we signed a player for £3m on a three-year contract, the cost of the player is £1m (amortization) per year over the three-year contract. Such player signed during summer of 2016 will cost us £1m this season. If we resigned such player amortization costs would disappear, but we would have to pay his salaries of course.

    We have 11 players on outgoing contracts, plus Sylla and Washinton, who has already left (they are part of the amortization costs for this season). Out of these I believe we have paid a transfer fee for 6: Bidwell, Lynch, Cousins, Wzsolek, Sylla and Washington. On top of this comes outgoing contracts of Furlong, Hall, Shodipo, Rangel, Wells, Hemed and Cameron, where I suppose we didnít pay any transfer fees.

    I donít know what the six players cost us. I believe Sylla and Washinton were the most expensive, supposedly commanding a fee in the region of £2.5-3m per player when we signed them. The other four might have cost £4-5m altogether. I donít know, so this is just my best guess. These players have had contracts lengths ranging from 2 to 3 years. A fair estimate may be amortization cost of £3.5m this season.

    Corrected for amortization we therefor just need to cut costs of £4m.

    Letís say we did not re-sign Hemed, Lynch, Cousins, Shodipo and obviously Sylla and Washington (I think we pay a good part of Sylla's salary through this season, despite the fact he left in January, but I think we paid Washington salary just up till 1 September 2018). That would save us around £3m if they have an average salary of £10.000 a week. If we re-signed the others on more modest salaries we would save even more.

    Hence, we are just looking at a possible need of further cutting costs of £1m if we donít resign all players on outgoing contracts but let some of them leave.

    Letís say we sell Eze (yes, it is painful to think about it). I believe we will get a fee in the range of £3-5m for him. He is again picked for England U21 and he is a decent prospect, despite his recent slip of form.

    Provided we got this fee and did not part with any other players than Eze, Hemed, Lynch, Cousin and Shodipo we would have £2.5m to £4.5m to strengthen the squad and we could afford to keep Freeman, Wells, Cameron, Rangel, Leinstner, Luongo, Wzsolek, Hall and other players subject to exit speculations.

    I think £2.5 to 4.5m would bring us two to four very decent signings or loans. Even if we factor in £1m cost for firing McClaren we would have a fair budget for new signings.And we would still have Freeman and the three best newcomers (Wells, Cameron and Rangel).

    The following season (2020/2021) will be Nirvana from a financial point of view, as we can put 2017/2018 behind us (it will be out of the three-year rolling FFP calculations). We can up spend significantly without fearing FFP Ė even as much as £10m. We would be in a better place than many other Championship clubs.We can give promotion a serious push if we just get through 2019/2020 without relegation. We are out of the worst FFP nightmare.

    With all the youngsters coming back from loans (Smyth, Chair, Oteh) I think we can field a squad good enough to stay up next season. We can even surprise a few, provided a good manager. A few of us think we are an unattractive club to manage, but we are not less attractive than a third of the Championship clubs. A new manager would face modest expectations, which is a good starting point.

    If we get rid of McClaren I donít think it looks that bad, provided we get the new signings spot on including the new manager.


  • #2
    Think we'll be looking at something like this come the end of the current yearly contract period

    GK - Lumley, Ingram
    DF - furlong, leistner, kakay, hamalainen
    MF - luongo, scowen, manning, Freeman, shodipo, wheeler, Bos, Smyth, chair
    ST - Smith, oteh, Eze

    can see the club taking this opportunity to get rid of those with contracts up this summer with quite a few probably not deemed value for money (hall, lynch, cousins) while one or two such as pawal would like to be kept but the money isn't right.

    I would look to get Rangel tied down for another year although bit risky given his injury problems this season but vital for the experience he brings to the back line when on the pitch, and Cameron in on loan again. Would then probably need to target a couple of CBs, a LB, midfielder and a striker.

    One of/both Eze and freeman going would fund the rebuild but would need to replace that creative spark. ​Think we'll be listening to offers for Luongo as well - right bit of scouting and his output shouldn't be too difficult to replace. Been a decent servant for us but another fee to go towards the rebuild/ffp.
    Last edited by Norths; 15-03-2019, 11:59 PM.

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    • #3
      definitely going to be a tougher season with Foolham and Sunderland joining. Even not knowing what players are at our disposal, it's hard to see 3 sides worse than us
      I must away now, I can no longer tarry
      This morning's tempest I have to cross
      I must be guided without a stumble
      Into the arms I love the most

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      • #4
        Smithies (back on loan if Cardiff stay up)
        rangel Hall loan cb bidwell
        cameron (loan ) dale Stephens (canít start for Brighton)
        smyth Eze/Chair bright / chair
        new st ( hopefully permanent from lower leagues )
        JN

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