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I think this will be a very busy summer. My best guess is that we will sign 13 players (not counting signings for the development team).
This is based on following assumptions:
1. We will have roughly the same squad size in 24/25 as in 23/24
2. Our FFP situation is much improved, so we have good room for player investments
3. Eze might be sold and generate £12m from the release clause of £60m (20%), but I have not factored it in
4. Begovic and Willock will stay
5. JCS, Chair and Armstrong will be sold
6. I think we will be open to sell Dykes and Frey but I assume they will stay as they won't receive a lot of interest.
7. Kolli, Larkeche, Walsh, Mahoney and Kelman will go on a season long loan (or half a season in the case of Kolli and Larkeche)
8. I cannot see anyone from the development team being promoted yet, but I hope I am wrong, and that there is quality there that I am not aware of (Talla?)
JCS and Chair will be sold because they have just two years left of their contract. We will part with them to get the full value, rather than running into a BOS/Manning situation. I suppose they are worth around £6m each (provided Chair's legal situation is sorted in line with recent information). Armstrong will be sold as he has not agreed to a new contract and his present contract ends in 12 months. I suppose he will command £1-3m (I see some quotes much higher figures).
As we are in a better financial position, and can afford to strengthen the squad, we will loan out young fringe players to give them more experience (as we successfully did for Eze and Chair). Kelman will be loaned out (or available on a free transfer) as he is likely not in Martis plans.
If so, we will lose 15 players:
These are the seven players we have released (Dozzell, Kakay, Adomah, Drewe, Archer, Duke-McKenna, Gubbins), the three players I assume we will sell (JCS, Chair and Armstrong) plus the five we might loan out. We might correct for Mahoney, Gubbins and Kelman that were out on loan for large spells also last season, and get to 12 in stead of 15.
I think we will replace with:
1 keeper
2 central defenders
1 left back
1 right back
3 midfielders
3 attacking players (number ten position and wingers)
2 strikers
I think we will cast our net much wider under Nourry, so I expect at least half of these to be from abroad. I think the overall spending, provided we sell the three mentioned players, will be £15-20m. If we for some reasons do not sell Chair or JCS, the spending will obviously be less, but I think it might still be as much as £10m, even in the case we do not benefit from any transfer of Eze. We have financial freedom to spend more if we want.
If this is indeed right, Nourry and Marti will be exceptionally busy. As we are hardly a top 200 club in Europe, we are not everyone's first choice, so I think we have to accept that a lot of business will be done just before the end of the transfer window. We are also in need of holding back some of the spending until we know the outcome of the situation of Eze, JCS and Chair.
This is based on following assumptions:
1. We will have roughly the same squad size in 24/25 as in 23/24
2. Our FFP situation is much improved, so we have good room for player investments
3. Eze might be sold and generate £12m from the release clause of £60m (20%), but I have not factored it in
4. Begovic and Willock will stay
5. JCS, Chair and Armstrong will be sold
6. I think we will be open to sell Dykes and Frey but I assume they will stay as they won't receive a lot of interest.
7. Kolli, Larkeche, Walsh, Mahoney and Kelman will go on a season long loan (or half a season in the case of Kolli and Larkeche)
8. I cannot see anyone from the development team being promoted yet, but I hope I am wrong, and that there is quality there that I am not aware of (Talla?)
JCS and Chair will be sold because they have just two years left of their contract. We will part with them to get the full value, rather than running into a BOS/Manning situation. I suppose they are worth around £6m each (provided Chair's legal situation is sorted in line with recent information). Armstrong will be sold as he has not agreed to a new contract and his present contract ends in 12 months. I suppose he will command £1-3m (I see some quotes much higher figures).
As we are in a better financial position, and can afford to strengthen the squad, we will loan out young fringe players to give them more experience (as we successfully did for Eze and Chair). Kelman will be loaned out (or available on a free transfer) as he is likely not in Martis plans.
If so, we will lose 15 players:
These are the seven players we have released (Dozzell, Kakay, Adomah, Drewe, Archer, Duke-McKenna, Gubbins), the three players I assume we will sell (JCS, Chair and Armstrong) plus the five we might loan out. We might correct for Mahoney, Gubbins and Kelman that were out on loan for large spells also last season, and get to 12 in stead of 15.
I think we will replace with:
1 keeper
2 central defenders
1 left back
1 right back
3 midfielders
3 attacking players (number ten position and wingers)
2 strikers
I think we will cast our net much wider under Nourry, so I expect at least half of these to be from abroad. I think the overall spending, provided we sell the three mentioned players, will be £15-20m. If we for some reasons do not sell Chair or JCS, the spending will obviously be less, but I think it might still be as much as £10m, even in the case we do not benefit from any transfer of Eze. We have financial freedom to spend more if we want.
If this is indeed right, Nourry and Marti will be exceptionally busy. As we are hardly a top 200 club in Europe, we are not everyone's first choice, so I think we have to accept that a lot of business will be done just before the end of the transfer window. We are also in need of holding back some of the spending until we know the outcome of the situation of Eze, JCS and Chair.
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