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  • Smithies again

    We always bemoan our luck/ misfortune, either keeper has a blinder or #9 in a rut for 20 games gets a hatrick

    So a question for Nass or anyone. If the #1 keeper in the world (probably) had a statistically normal record of saving penalties WHERE WOULD WE BE?

  • #2
    Mathematically relegated?
    Minds Are Like Parachutes.
    Work Best When Open...
    @Nowt2SeeHere

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    • #3
      I'm so confused.
      Top Scorers 2018/2019

      Nakhi Wells - 8
      Pawel Wszolek - 6
      Luke Freeman - 6
      Matt Smith - 6
      Ebere Eze - 4
      Joel Lynch - 3
      Tomer Hemed - 3
      Toni Leistner - 2
      Massimo Luongo- 2
      Angel Rangel - 2
      Bright Osayi-Samuel - 2
      Geoff Cameron - 1
      Aramide Oteh - 1
      Jake Bidwell - 1
      Jordan Cousins - 1

      Summer Transfers 2019

      IN


      OUT

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Ginger Ninja View Post
        I'm so confused.
        I think he wants to know if Smithies pen saves were average at this level, rather than above average, what would our league position be.
        Minds Are Like Parachutes.
        Work Best When Open...
        @Nowt2SeeHere

        Comment


        • #5
          Smithies is a distraction for us. He will be player of the season. Whooppee!

          I'd rather have a 'Smithies' of a striker than a goalie. There have never been any threads FFS WE NEED A GOALKEEPER!!!

          He compensates for a $hit defence and a $hit attack...oh and a $hit midfield.

          Comment


          • #6
            5 league penalties faced this season, 4 saved, 1 conceded.

            Statistically, if a penalty is hit on target, it has an 85% chance of going in. So get as close to this as possible and lets say he concedes 4 of the 5 penalties. So lets look at the worst case scenario, where we've lost the maximum points from the penalties and the 4 penalties that we will say have now gone in are:

            Brighton (0:3) - Glenn Murray (was scored already)
            Fulham (2:1) - Tom Cairney
            Fulham (2:1) - Sone Aluko
            Fulham (1:1) - Chris Martin

            with Jonathan Kodjia's penalty still being saved as we had lost that match anyway.

            That means 5 points lost, putting us 23rd and putting Fulham 7th, one point behind the play off spots.
            "What stats allow you to do is not take things at face value. The idea that I trust my eyes more than the stats, I just don't buy that because I've seen magicians pull rabbits out of hats and I know I just know that rabbit's not in there." - Billy Beane

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            • #7
              Thanks Nass

              For those confused this is what I wanted to know, we are in a relegation battle

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by SoCal View Post
                Thanks Nass

                For those confused this is what I wanted to know, we are in a relegation battle
                We aren't exactly... because the fact is, we didn't concede those penalties. If we didn't have smithies... we'd be in a relegation battle. But we have only conceded 1 penalty this season and we spent money on a player and he's earned his wage.
                "What stats allow you to do is not take things at face value. The idea that I trust my eyes more than the stats, I just don't buy that because I've seen magicians pull rabbits out of hats and I know I just know that rabbit's not in there." - Billy Beane

                Comment


                • #9
                  5 points above the bottom three, I'd say that puts us in a relegation battle

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by blueandwright View Post
                    5 points above the bottom three, I'd say that puts us in a relegation battle
                    Bang on.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I dont think we have more "bad luck" calls against us than any other team. Just generally, good saves and near misses aren't always noted in match reports - I'm sure if we read other teams forums and analysed their matches further, we'd see similar posts.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Ginger Ninja View Post
                        I'm so confused.
                        I know

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by SoCal View Post
                          Thanks Nass

                          For those confused this is what I wanted to know, we are in a relegation battle
                          But we already knew that...just look at the table...
                          Top Scorers 2018/2019

                          Nakhi Wells - 8
                          Pawel Wszolek - 6
                          Luke Freeman - 6
                          Matt Smith - 6
                          Ebere Eze - 4
                          Joel Lynch - 3
                          Tomer Hemed - 3
                          Toni Leistner - 2
                          Massimo Luongo- 2
                          Angel Rangel - 2
                          Bright Osayi-Samuel - 2
                          Geoff Cameron - 1
                          Aramide Oteh - 1
                          Jake Bidwell - 1
                          Jordan Cousins - 1

                          Summer Transfers 2019

                          IN


                          OUT

                          Comment

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