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A Statistical Preview of the Blackburn Game

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  • A Statistical Preview of the Blackburn Game

    The first real post from me on this section, hope you all enjoy.

    Starting simple, Blackburn have conceded 12 in 5 games this season and have scored 4, winning none, drawing one and losing 4. That draw came at home against Burton Albion.

    They're likely to end up being offside quite often and have trouble defending against wingers so hopefully we can take advantage of that. If Luongo manages to play, we'll definitely create more as Blackburn have trouble defending against dribblers and no one has dribbled more for us than Mass himself. Playing a pressing game will definitely suit us too as Blackburn have a tendency of making individual errors in matches and the pressure we apply will no doubt make that worse for them.

    Most of the game is likely to take place in their half, with us playing a high line and them playing very deep in general this season. Ned will have a lot of work to deal with as Blackburn do like to attack down their left side, so assuming Hall and Caulker return as the centre back pairing, Ned will be defending at right back.

    Blackburn will be playing a 442, we will likely be playing a 4231, which means we actually have a chance of holding possession this game, with the extra body in the middle of the park. We cannot afford to give them a long shot opportunity or they will likely take it. We've not been great at defending against long shots so if they do score, it is likely to come from that sort of situation. Obviously we'll be looking to create set piece opportunities and with plenty of options as to who can take them, we should be looking to make the most of it. Having a back line including Caulker, Ned and Hall should really be guaranteeing danger with every set piece, add Polter to that mix and it's even more likely. With Yeni, Chery, Bidwell all able to deliver from different positions, expect more set piece goals from us.

    Overall, the man we should be looking out for is Craig Conway, who's got a good set piece delivery, a good cross on him and is probably the main creative force in a weak team offensively. Nullify his threat with one of our full backs and we're good to go.

    I suspect we'll see a 2 goal victory margin, looking pessimistically at it, I'd go with 3-1 as opposed to 2-0 because that's how we tend to go at QPR.
    "What stats allow you to do is not take things at face value. The idea that I trust my eyes more than the stats, I just don't buy that because I've seen magicians pull rabbits out of hats and I know I just know that rabbit's not in there." - Billy Beane

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